By Hope Kennedy
staff writer
Up until election night, it seemed obvious that Clinton would be our next president. All of the polls seemed to point to Hillary winning by large margins. When it was announced early in the morning on November 9th that Donald Trump would be our nation's next president, it was appropriately termed an “upset” victory. Such an unexpected victory naturally leads to the question of how the polls were so off.
The fact that the polls were predicting such a large win over Trump seemed to play a negative role for Hillary Clinton, explains Travis Nichol, Northview Government teacher. Instead of going to vote, Nichol believes that potential Clinton supporters leaned on the predictions of the expected victory and stayed home, affecting voter turnout.
Another key factor was the misrepresentation, specifically among “young white males and first-time voters,” Nichol said. On top of misrepresentation, some first-time voters voted third party which some polls didn’t have an option for, commented Mr. Nichol. “You have to look at exactly what the poll was asking,” he finished. An NPR article supports that finding stating that 18-29 year old voters “jumped in third party support from 3 percent to 8 percent” helping to explain that misrepresentation again (NPR 2016).
For those polls who did get it right, what exactly did they consider? “Trump’s campaign must have gotten some sort of an idea that states like Michigan and Wisconsin were in play because all of the sudden they started showing up there” Nichol noted. That information seemed to pay off as states that have voted democratic for the last 40 years went from blue to red in this election.
When asked if the future of polling will be affected by this election Nichol’s resounding answer was yes, “it will either be less trust in the polls or people will take a closer look at what’s being asked.” Either way, this election will be one for the books.
"7 Reasons Donald Trump Won The Presidential Election." RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Nov. 2016.
For those polls who did get it right, what exactly did they consider? “Trump’s campaign must have gotten some sort of an idea that states like Michigan and Wisconsin were in play because all of the sudden they started showing up there” Nichol noted. That information seemed to pay off as states that have voted democratic for the last 40 years went from blue to red in this election.
When asked if the future of polling will be affected by this election Nichol’s resounding answer was yes, “it will either be less trust in the polls or people will take a closer look at what’s being asked.” Either way, this election will be one for the books.
"7 Reasons Donald Trump Won The Presidential Election." RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Nov. 2016.
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